Bloomberg Ahead, But There's a Surprise

From the NY Daily News:

The Quinnipiac University Poll released Wednesday showed Bloomberg leading Ferrer 47 to 38 percent. The mayor was six points behind Ferrer, a Democrat, in Quinnipiac's last poll released March 30.

Bloomberg led Fields 43 to 38 percent, and was ahead of Miller 42 to 35 percent, the poll found. He led Weiner 44 to 32 percent.

Among Democratic primary voters, Fields continued to gain ground against Ferrer, whose numbers have tumbled steadily since his statement in March that the 1999 shooting of Amadou Diallo was not a crime. In the latest poll, 27 percent of primary voters said they backed Ferrer, versus 23 percent for Fields.

So Bloomberg is leading, no surprise on that. But I was surprised by his soft reelect numbers.

Bloomberg's approval rating stood at 47 percent, about the same as the 46 percent rating he received March 30.

Slightly less than half of respondents, 47 percent, said Bloomberg cared about "the needs and problems of people like you," slightly higher than the March figure of 41 percent. The mayor has long struggled to come across as sympathetic to the concerns of ordinary New Yorkers.

Bloomberg is ahead and seems inevitable. But the numbers show he's very beatable. I expect this race to tighten - Mayor Mike is not making friends among firefighters, for instance, and every one of these slights is a nick and cut.

In the primary, here are the numbers:

Among Democratic primary voters, Ferrer gets 27 percent, with 23 percent for Fields. This is down from a 40 – 14 percent Ferrer lead March 2 and a 36 – 21 percent Ferrer lead March 30.

Weiner and Miller have barely moved among Democratic voters, with 13 percent for Weiner and 11 percent for Miller.

The absolutes are meaningless, but the trends matter. And Weiner and Miller are competing for the same pool of votes, the white liberals who think Bloomberg is 'a good manager'. This explains the increasing tension between the two campaigns. They are structurally opposed, with Weiner having the upper hand and Miller afraid to pick a fight. Importantly, the Weiner/Miller white base are the same voters that in the general election will swing this race to Bloomberg, or against him.

I give the slight nod to Fields. What do you know about her?

UPDATE: The Jaker implies that Miller's religion (Protestant) makes the White Jewish liberals flow into Weiner's camp.